I try to keep my bitching about RNG to a minimum here — trust me, as much as I play, there’s been plenty of bad streaks — but I’m so goddamned tilted right now I need to vent some of my anger.
Probability of getting two or less Avalon Drake skill up drops in 14 runs: 0.65%.
So not even that bad and not nearly as soul-crushing as my Ares skill ups, but this feels particularly horrible on a non-IAP account. I hate biweeklies with a passion so that probably contributes to my tilt.
Yes, I went 0/2.
Setsu's PAD Blog 
Had to chime in on “best topic title.”
LikeLike
Dear god I just did the exact opposite farming Apoc skill ups. 6 Avalons in a row with both of mine already max skilled. I never had any need for either of my Apocs before Myr came along so I never bothered skilling them up when they used to be in rotations CONSTANTLY.
LikeLike
Yeah, that sucks. Biweeklies are the worst. The 50% drop rate (for the one you want if you only want one) on top of skill up RNG is just asking for bad streaks. It’s one thing to feel bad getting a crap drop rate or skill up rate separately, but to combine them is harsh.
There was a point quite a while ago where I felt like GungHo was making skill ups easier, but with these soul crushing biweeklies on top of the horrendous collab weapon drop rates, this obviously isn’t the case.
LikeLike
The only good thing I can find to say about it all is that during the x4 event I went 4 out of 5 on Baal and it was what I imagine experiencing spiritual rapture must be like. Without years of soul crushing bad luck that moment is nowhere near as magical:)
LikeLike
And that is why I only farm that kind of dungeons if I need any of the boss drops…Like in the Light / Blue dog dungeons…I think that and The Metalic Fire / Wood are the only ones that I have both skill ups for the bosses
LikeLike
i feel your pain. all i wanted was light jewel from holy beasts. literally the only thing i needed, and i didn’t have anything better to spend stam on.
i thought it would take 5 tries! 10, maybe?
it took 33 tries and nearly 700 wasted stamina before i saw Sakuya once
fuck this game
anyways sorry about biweeklies
LikeLike
That’s horrible. I don’t think I’ve had it quite as bad as you, but I’ve definitely had bad streaks on that dungeon. I actually had this problem on my non-IAP alt except I needed a fire jewel. Instead of risking that RNG, I just farmed MP and bought a jewel from the shop. I definitely feel your pain, though.
LikeLike
Sunk cost fallacy 😦 I just take what I get nowadays from that stuff. Jewels are plentiful anyway from challenges and invade events anyway. Absolutely not worth all the stamina you wasted, but we all make mistakes like that :p
LikeLike
This tends to be my experience as well. Baal took me at least 100 runs. Raphael was even worse. I think the drop rates are 1 sided.
LikeLike
Sucks. Seems like everyone has very bad streaks, multiple ones to boot.
It sure feels like variance almost never works in your favor and when it does, it’s on something inconsequential like going 5/5 skill ups when combining +egg fodder. Selective memory, for sure, but I sure wish I had more good memories to select from.
I still think that GungHo’s RNG is too punishing for certain things (note: the following is all pure speculation). Most games have some sort of mechanism to make sure players aren’t afflicted by overwhelming variance too often. There are techniques like smoothing or “karma” depending on what fits the situation the best which makes the dickings more tolerable. With PAD it just feels like we’re taking it up the ass raw. But I guess as long as they keep making money, there’s no reason to change it.
LikeLike
Pseudo-random distribution is what they call it. The day that comes to PAD, if ever, would be a magical day. 3x/4x (and one day even 5x) are great, but it would be a lot less soul crushing if you at least got something from an 0-5 feed (such as an increased chance for the next feed).
Also, since we’re sharing shit luck stories, I too am trying to farm those green dogs using my alt and main. Each has a drake that started at SL 1. After two days of casual runs my main is at skill level 6, my alt is at 1. The same thing happened with Dios farming. Main max skilled dios number 4 while alt is at skill level 5. My main IAP while my alt does not. I’m starting to thing that plays a factor into the GH RNG.
LikeLike
Yup, I believe most RNG for video games is pseudo-random. PAD’s is easily the most punishing, both because I think their PRNG is shit, but also because each skill up is so critical and so many resources go into it that it feels horrible when you fail. Instead of increasing the skill up rate bonus, your example of boosting rates after an 0/5 or whatever would go such a long ways toward making things more tolerable.
LikeLike
You’re right about all video game RNG actually being PRNG. However, pseudo-random distribution (PRD) is a bit different. In PRD each failed attempt increases the chance of success in the next attempt. In a true PRD implementation, the actual successful attempts generally fall in line with the advertised percentages. Check it out: http://dota2.gamepedia.com/Pseudo-random_distribution
LikeLike
I see what you’re getting at. Yeah, that general idea of modifying RNG is what I’m referring to when I brought up smoothing and karma (something that modifies the outcome based on whatever state information is being recorded). I just don’t know any actual terminology since this obviously isn’t a field of even casual interest for me. I apologize if the terminology I’m using is incorrect and thus confusing.
From what I gather, an actual RNG would be based on some random natural phenomena but isn’t exactly practical for video games. A PRNG is something that creates a sequence of numbers that is supposed to be indistinguishable from something truly random. Then most games implement some mechanic on top of the PRNG algorithm itself to mitigate variance befitting of where the RNG is being applied. That’s just the way Dota 2 does it (and as someone that doesn’t play Dota 2 it’s nice to see something like that actually documented). The best known example I know of from a game I’ve actually played is the Diablo 3 pity timer that makes sure a legendary drops at least once every 2 hours. An overly simple mechanic, but sometimes that’s all you need and something PAD could surely benefit from.
LikeLike
I feel your pain. My friends and I had a hypermax contest, picking 1 favorite in each other’s boxes, we all bet $10, of course through random chance. I got AA Lucifer, not Arch Demon, Archangel, my other friends got Pandora, and Apocalypse). He has 16 skill levels and that dark ninja(fortunately it was in Kanetsugu’s dungeon so good for +’s) never drops, I kept getting the green ninja or whatever else was in there. I did lose.
LikeLike
That’s why some people prefer to farm arena. At least you bypass the skillups rng and only have to worry about py color rng.
LikeLike
A valid alternative. The variance can be pretty bad there as well, though. I think I’ve gotten like 2 Woodpys in my past 50 or so runs (which, amusingly, is also a <1% chance). I actually stopped keeping track of my Py drop distribution because it was so depressing.
LikeLike
This reminds me that I still need to skill up raphael and cerberus rider; the latter of which isn’t even 50% drop from legelonte…
LikeLike
Yeah Legelonte is horrible. It was on 1.5x drops a few weeks back, but was still horrible.
LikeLike
There are jize skillups in black contract. I farmed severnzard since I needed both mandrake and green fruit and stopped once I didn’t need fruit anymore. Few mandrake drops and 0 skillups 😦 . You can always farm taiko hard for evolved matchsticks if that will substitute for your purposes.
LikeLike
Yea, this is basically why I’ve stepped up my arena farming game. Unless I need multiple skillups from say, a 23/25 stamina skillup dungeon, it’s really just more stamina efficient to py a monster even if it has skillup fodder. Like, 50 stamina for a guaranteed skillup? Hell yeah! 25 stamina for a .5*.3 *100% chance? Heh. Sure, the problem is volume, but with miru, ronove, kaede and whatnot, I can farm a1 easily and with high success rate. It’s also much more fun to a1 than swipe/button through some other things.
Now there are certainly some examples of when I’d still opt for traditional methods. Like if jewels are invading and I need say, sasuke/seraph luci skillups, then I’d probably prefer kane farming since +s are great too. But as you know, biweeklies are super trash. Maybe if I needed 3-4 skillups from there but otherwise, no thanks, GungHo.
LikeLike
Yes, Arena would be the ideal way to skill up everything (although it’s just as boring as any other dungeon you farm to death so “fun” is an overall questionable positive even if it’s a valid reason for some people). Given an account that can farm Arena, time is the only reason biweeklies are legit plays. Although I guess MAthena will change that equation.
LikeLike
Yeah I guess the “fun” part is subjective. Though I feel that for most people, the variety of spawns, and actually comboing, beats dios swiping the same floors over and over (unless you’re just trying to spend all your stam and gtfo asap).
And yeah I’m excited for mathena. I have the mats ready, though I only have 2 ragdras (and a nepdra I guess). Perhaps I could make use of alnair/reincarnated zeal/australis if only as bases for SI. I am considering buying a 3rd or 4th ragdra, though. It’d be nice to have 1 or 2 without killers for use in a3 on ronove.
LikeLike
I need to farm Apoc skillups
Preparing for a sea of drake skillups
LikeLike